We are well into the first quarter of 2015 and in many ways, it looks similar to last spring: low inventory, low interest rates and strong demand. In January 2015, only 17 single family units were sold and there was only a month of inventory available. If you’ve been to open houses, you have seen they are well attended and homes are still selling quickly, usually in under 30 days. What does this mean for this Spring? The tell-tale signs are that the market will again be hot. I am already seeing multiple offers and it’s not even Spring yet. I personally don’t think we’re going to see the crazy overbidding that’s been happening the last few years but it looks like it will be a brisk market again.
In January 2014 the to date average days on market is 21. However, average days on market has been going up. In Dec. 2013 it was 28 days and in Jan. 2014 it went up to 39 days. This doesn’t say a whole lot because just 1 or 2 homes that have been on the market for a long time (like the ones well over $1million) will skew the average days on market. Homes in the “sweet spot” of under $850k sell very quickly. Median sales price was $685,000 in Dublin for detached single family homes in January. This is down from December 2013 when median price sold was $848,000. To me, average price is more telling because it gives an overall view of the market, whereas median price just tells you the price that was in the middle. It just depends on what kind of homes happened to sell that month. That being said, average sales price in Dublin for single family homes was $787,931 in January.
Interestingly, average price per/sq. ft went up to $369 from $360 in Dec. 2013. There is only about 1 month of inventory in Dublin right now, which is quite low. Homes are selling for an average of 99.12% of list price now. This will be an interesting stat to keep track of. Last July homes were selling for an average of 105% of list price. As of this writing, there are 39 single family homes active on the market with an average price of $1,098,000.
Although we are well into Fall and headed toward Winter, buyer demand in Dublin, CA remains strong. Currently, there is only one month of inventory available. As you can see from the graph below, homes sell for 100% of list price in Dublin. Days on the market for detached single family homes is about 19 year to date. As of the end of October 2013, there were 35 active homes on the market, 49 pending and 38 sold, with average selling price of $798,000 for detached homes. However, the market is slower than it was this past summer. Inventory is down to 35 active homes compared to 55 in August. Average days on market is up to 26 compared to 12 days in August. (click on images to make larger)
As of today, average 30 year fixed loans are 4.38%, which is higher than this year’s low but still good. It will be interesting to see how the market responds in 2014.
2011 finished fairly strongly with 29 single family homes sold in Dublin, CA in December 2011. As of December 2011 there was only 1.1 months of supply on the market compared to 2.1 months in December 2010. The average selling price was $565,000 or $264 per sq. ft. Homes sold at an average of 98% sale price/list price ratio. All of these signs point to a relatively healthy real estate market in Dublin. Combined with record low interest rates, homes are not staying long on the market, averaging 34 DOM. Many buyers are attracted by the relative affordability of Dublin vs Pleasanton and San Ramon, while still having access to newer homes, great schools, and great location close to freeways and shopping. See graphic below for detailed stats.
For those of you interested in the housing market trends in Dublin, CA here is what’s happening as of August 2009. Data was obtained from Bay East Assoc. of Realtors.
Median Sold Price Per Month
August 08 vs. August 09: The median price is down 17% from $657,200 to $543,000 for ALL housing types. However, based on the chart below it appears median price has begun to stabilize.
The Number of Sold Properties by Month
August 08 vs. August 09: The number of sold properties is down 12%. As you can see from the below graph the numbers are up and down each month and there is no clear trend established.
The Number of Properties For Sale by Month
August 08 vs. August 09: The number of houses for sale is down 47%. This may help to explain the declining sales numbers- much less inventory!
The Number of Under Contract Properties by Month
August 08 vs. August 09: The number of under contract properties is up 115%! Although the number of sales is down overall from August 2008, it appears the trend may be going up since the number of under contract properties has increased by 115%- a significant increase.
The Average Days on the Market by Month
August 2008 vs. August 2009: The average days on the market is down 9%. This makes sense since the number of homes in contract has gone up 115% from Aug. 2008 to Aug. 2009.
Months Supply of Inventory
August 2008 vs. August 2009: The average months of supply inventory is down 84%. In August 2008 there was over 7 months of inventory and in August 2009 there is just over 1 month of inventory. This is also a significant change.
Due to significantly reduced median prices from August 2008 in addition to currently low interest rates, homes in Dublin have become much more affordable. Although the number of sold homes in Aug. 2009 is down from August 2008, the trend appears to be going up since number of homes in contract is up significantly and inventory and days on market is down significantly. It appears buyers are taking advantage of the lower prices and interest rates and also taking advantage of the federal first time homebuyer’s credit. Will this trend continue? I’d love to hear your thoughts!