In January 2014 the to date average days on market is 21. However, average days on market has been going up. In Dec. 2013 it was 28 days and in Jan. 2014 it went up to 39 days. This doesn’t say a whole lot because just 1 or 2 homes that have been on the market for a long time (like the ones well over $1million) will skew the average days on market. Homes in the “sweet spot” of under $850k sell very quickly. Median sales price was $685,000 in Dublin for detached single family homes in January. This is down from December 2013 when median price sold was $848,000. To me, average price is more telling because it gives an overall view of the market, whereas median price just tells you the price that was in the middle. It just depends on what kind of homes happened to sell that month. That being said, average sales price in Dublin for single family homes was $787,931 in January.
Interestingly, average price per/sq. ft went up to $369 from $360 in Dec. 2013. There is only about 1 month of inventory in Dublin right now, which is quite low. Homes are selling for an average of 99.12% of list price now. This will be an interesting stat to keep track of. Last July homes were selling for an average of 105% of list price. As of this writing, there are 39 single family homes active on the market with an average price of $1,098,000.
Although we are well into Fall and headed toward Winter, buyer demand in Dublin, CA remains strong. Currently, there is only one month of inventory available. As you can see from the graph below, homes sell for 100% of list price in Dublin. Days on the market for detached single family homes is about 19 year to date. As of the end of October 2013, there were 35 active homes on the market, 49 pending and 38 sold, with average selling price of $798,000 for detached homes. However, the market is slower than it was this past summer. Inventory is down to 35 active homes compared to 55 in August. Average days on market is up to 26 compared to 12 days in August. (click on images to make larger)
As of today, average 30 year fixed loans are 4.38%, which is higher than this year’s low but still good. It will be interesting to see how the market responds in 2014.
Currently in Dublin, CA there are only 21 active detached homes available and 116 homes that are pending sale. Inventory is very low, with under a month’s supply. The price breakdown of active homes available are:
$350,000 to $500,000: 6 homes
$501,000 to $750,000: 11 homes
$751,000 to $1 million: 3 homes
Over $1 million: 1 home.
Average days on market for detached homes among all price ranges is 25 days. In short, the market is still red hot. On my listings in Dublin, I have commonly received 10 or more offers in the past few months. Why is inventory so low? Partly because many homeowners are still under water and cannot sell (unless they do a short sale), so they are keeping their homes off the market. In addition, banks still have not released a lot of their “shadow inventory” Other potential sellers are still waiting it out to see if the market continues to go up in hopes of maximizing their sale price. However, now is a great time to sell in Dublin, CA, and a great time to buy if you can secure a property.
The median price for a detached home in Livermore, CA as of Dec. 31st was $425,000. There were 134 active homes on the market, which represents about a 1.5 month supply. There was a 2.8 month supply a year ago in Dec. 2010. Average DOM in December 2011 was 45, down from 80 days in December 2010. Overall prices held relatively steady at $253/sq. ft in December 2011 compared to $258/sq. ft. in December 2010. The sale price/list price ratio was 97.45% in December 2011. Most listings are in the “sweet spot” of $300k to $500k. Overall the market in Livermore appears to be relatively healthy, with low average DOM, low inventory and high sale price/list price ratio. Just a personal anecdote, my listing at 881 Havasu Ct, Livermore, CA received 7 offers in less than a week. Another located at 6141 Forget Me Not, Livermore received 3 offers in a week.
However, there is a downside. Of the 905 detached homes sold in 2011, 217 were short sales and 186 were bank-owned. Together, this represents 45% of the market. Almost half of the sales of detached homes in 2011 were a distressed sale in Livermore, CA.
See below for stats, click to enlarge.
2011 finished fairly strongly with 29 single family homes sold in Dublin, CA in December 2011. As of December 2011 there was only 1.1 months of supply on the market compared to 2.1 months in December 2010. The average selling price was $565,000 or $264 per sq. ft. Homes sold at an average of 98% sale price/list price ratio. All of these signs point to a relatively healthy real estate market in Dublin. Combined with record low interest rates, homes are not staying long on the market, averaging 34 DOM. Many buyers are attracted by the relative affordability of Dublin vs Pleasanton and San Ramon, while still having access to newer homes, great schools, and great location close to freeways and shopping. See graphic below for detailed stats.
I list a lot of short sales, and it always puzzles me when an agent or buyer submits a lowball offer on a short sale, especially in desirable areas. I explain to them the short sale process, that the bank will perform a BPO (broker price opinion) or appraisal to determine the market value of the property. I also explain to them the banks want close to if not full market value for the property so ultimately it is a waste of time to offer something you know that will be rejected. From a listing standpoint, entertaining a lowball offer through the short sale process is dangerous because if that offer does not work out, you will have limited time to find another buyer before the foreclosure sale date. This is especially true now since banks are acting much more quickly to foreclose.
I understand buyers and their agents want to negotiate (I certainly do) but they also have to understand their offers have to be reasonable and the banks will not accept lowball offers. I will only submit an offer to the bank if it is reasonable since it is such a waste of time. The buyer may also get frustrated, thinking they will get a super low price, only to be rejected or countered by the bank. On the flipside, I also see banks countering reasonable offers to ridiculously high amounts. In one case, I was listing a house for $375,000 and the bank countered to $450,000! and this was after it was on the market for 6 months without any other offers! Overall both buyers and the banks need to get realistic about the prices in this market.
Freddie Mac has put out a great series of videos on You Tube that addresses the various myths surrounding foreclosure. These videos talk about things ranging from scams to watch out for to when you can buy a new home after a foreclosure or short sale. Freddie Mac is a major authority in the home financing market, so it’s great they have addressed some of the myths and false information out there. This information is relevent to any market whether you live in Dublin, Pleasanton, San Ramon, or Danville. Here is the video:
Almaden Valley in San Jose, CA is a great place to live and raise a family. Approximately 37,000 people live here, in the Southwestern part of San Jose. The reasons why people choose to make this area home are many. Among them are excellent schools, close proximity to world-class technology companies, and a family-friendly environment. Although this area is not immune from the housing downturn, it has weathered the storm better than many places. There are also many outdoor and recreation opportunities available. Check out the below video to learn more.